Thomas L. Saaty
CONFLICTS RESOLUTION AS A
GAME WITH PRIORITIES: MULTIDIMENSIONAL CARDINAL PAYOFFS, PART 1
There are two ways to consider increasing the effectiveness of the
theory of games in applications. The first is to derive priorities
for the payoffs using a cardinal absolute relative scale instead of
an ordinal or interval scale to do equilibrium analysis. Our
approach using cardinal payoffs is illustrated with one example in
an application to OPEC strategies that the author published in the
International Journal of Game Theory.
Vyacheslav Abramov
FURTHER ANALYSIS OF
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR LARGE CLIENT/SERVER COMPUTER NETWORKS
In the recent paper [Abramov, RТА, 2 (2007), pp. 34-42], confidence
intervals have been derived for symmetric large client/server
computer networks with client servers, which are subject to
breakdowns. The present paper mainly discusses the case of
asymmetric network and provides another representation of confidence
intervals.
Boyan Dimitrov, George Hayrapetyan, Peter Stanchev, Zohel Khalil
AGING AND LONGEVITY CONTROL
OF BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS VIA DRUGS - A RELIABILITY MODEL
The treatments in bio-systems correspond to respective repairs known
in reliability. Some treatments may make the biological objects
younger; others may make them older, or not deteriorate their
current age. Such kind of "maintenance" has some analogous
failure/repair models in reliability. We use it to incorporate some
results of reliability and bio modeling for the quantitative studies
of the aging and resistance of bio-systems to environmental stress
factors. We call "calendar age" the age of a bio-object which does
not use treatments, or uses it without age improvement, or
deterioration. All bio-objects, which are using treatments of same
strength and direction of effect, have "virtual age". We explain
here what the virtual age is, and how is it related to age
correcting factors. We illustrate our common results about the
virtual ages on the example of the Gompertz-Makenham law of
mortality, and discuss the relations of the longevity, mechanism of
aging and age affecting control. As a consequence, a concept of age
determination is proposed. Numeric and graphical examples are
provided.
Yakov Genis
RELIABILITY AND RISK
ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS OF PROTECTION AND BLOCKING WITH FAST
RESTORATION
There is examined a system with fast restoration which should be
operational beginning from some moments of time. If beginning from
these moments of time the system is defective during the time more
than the assigned random time interval it is considered failed. Such
system includes the models of systems with the protection and
blocking and systems with the discrete periodic functions. The
estimations of indices of failure-free performance and
maintainability of these systems and the estimation of indices of
risk and losses, connected with the failure (accident) of the system
with protection are obtained. This material was presented in the
Mathematical Methods in Reliability 2007 Conference in Glasgow, UK.
Gurami Tsitsiashvili, A. Losev
AST ALGORITHMS OF
ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF NETWORKS WITH UNRELIABE ARCS
A problem of a reliability in networks with unreliable elements
naturally origin in technical applications. But a direct calculation
of the reliability demands a number of operations which increases
geometrically dependently on a number of arcs. So it is necessary to
use approximate methods and particularly asymptotic one. In other
work asymptotic reliability is calculated in analogous asymptotic
suggestions on the network arcs. Main parameters in these asymptotic
are a shortest way length and a maximal flow in a network. In this
paper different partial classes of networks are considered and
effective algorithms of their parameters calculations are suggested.
These networks are networks originated by dynamic systems, networks
with integer-valued lengths of arcs, superposition of networks and
bridge schemes.
Gurami Tsitsiashvili
BOTTLENECKS IN GENERAL TYPE
LOGICAL SISTEMS WITH UNRELIABE ELEMENTS
In this paper a model of general type logical system with unreliable
elements is considered. An asymptotic analysis of its work (failure)
probability is made in appropriate conditions on work (failure)
probabilities of the system elements. A concept of bottlenecks of
this system is constructed on a suggestion that an increase (a
decrease) of elements reliabilities lead to an increase (a decrease)
of the system reliability. A construction of
general type logical system is founded on concepts of disjunctive
and conjunctive normal forms (DNF and CNF) of a logical function.
Mark Kaminskiy, Vasili Krivtsov
AN INTEGRAL MEASURE OF
AGING/REJUVENATION FOR REPAIRABLE AND NON-REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS
This paper introduces a simple index that helps to assess the degree
of aging or rejuvenation of a non-repairable system. The index
ranges from -1 to 1 and is negative for the class of decreasing
failure rate distributions (or deteriorating point processes) and is
positive for the increasing failure rate distributions (or improving
point processes). The introduced index is distribution free.
Revaz Kakubava
ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATING
RENEWAL PROCESSES WITH DEPENDED COMPONENTS
In the terms of operational calculus the probability characteristics
of direct and reverse residual renewal time of alternating renewal
process, where renewal time depends on life-time, are found.
Edward Korczak
COMPUTATION OF
FAILURE/REPAIR FREQUENCY OF MULTI-STATE MONOTONE SYSTEMS
The paper deals with calculation methods for failure and repair
frequencies of multi-state monotone systems, both for the
instantaneous and steady state cases. Being based on the binary
representation of multi-state structure, new general formula for the
failure/repair frequency is derived. This formula is used to obtain
simple rules for the calculation of failure/repair frequency. In
particular, the use of the algebra of dual numbers is presented.
Mark Bebbington, Chin-Diew Lai, Ricardas Zitikis
LIFETIME ANALYSIS OF
INCANDESCENT LAMPS: THE MENON-AGRAWAL MODEL REVISITED
The use of the Weibull distribution to model lifetimes of
incandescent lamps was originally suggested by Leff (1990).
Following this suggestion, Agrawal and Menon have offered and
investigated, in a series of papers, an improved model constructed
from physical considerations and laws of mathematical statistics. In
the present paper we offer supplementary thoughts concerning the
Agrawal-Menon model and its several modifications. In addition, we
discuss the use of Pinelis's l'Hospital-type calculus rules in the
analysis of ageing properties of lifetime distributions.